{"id":2549,"date":"2022-03-26T10:07:49","date_gmt":"2022-03-26T09:07:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.rouillier.com\/wordpress-socioeco\/?p=2549"},"modified":"2022-04-26T10:22:36","modified_gmt":"2022-04-26T08:22:36","slug":"poutine-quid-de-la-negociation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rouillier.com\/wordpress-socioeco\/poutine-quid-de-la-negociation\/","title":{"rendered":"Poutine, quid de la n\u00e9gociation\u00a0?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ce que je vais dire est purement sp\u00e9culatif car je n\u2019ai pas plus d\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ments que chacun d\u2019entre vous&nbsp;!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Deux points retiennent mon attention<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\" type=\"1\"><li>L\u2019annonce faites par le porte-parole de l\u2019arm\u00e9e Russe que les objectifs militaires sont chang\u00e9s et se portent maintenant sur l\u2019est de l\u2019Ukraine. Cette annonce est faite par l\u2019arm\u00e9e et non par le Kremlin comme si Poutine ne voulais pas porter officiellement le poids de cette d\u00e9cision qui pourrait \u00eatre vue comme un \u00e9chec de l\u2019invasion au nord\u2026 ou moins probable comme si l\u2019arm\u00e9e se d\u00e9solidarisait du Kremlin<\/li><li>Une n\u00e9gociation en cours (France, Turquie, Gr\u00e8ce) avec Poutine pour \u00e9vacuer les civiles de Marioupol. Ceci va dans le sens des d\u00e9sirs Russes qui souhaitent \u00e9vacuer les civiles pour ne laisser dans la ville que des \u00ab\u00a0combattants\u00a0\u00bb et justifier ainsi une invasion massive sans souci des pertes humaines.<\/li><li>Les pertes Russes, mal connues, mais qui semblent consid\u00e9rables commencent \u00e0 peser lourds dans la balance car si la population Russe n\u2019est pas encore vraiment au fait, l\u2019arm\u00e9e, elle, conna\u00eet bien sa situation<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tout ceci me laisse pr\u00e9sager d\u2019une issue n\u00e9goci\u00e9e dans laquelle la Russie conserverait le Donbass et la Crim\u00e9e et annexerait Marioupol et l\u2019acc\u00e8s \u00e0 la mer d\u2019Azov. L\u2019Ukraine. Odessa serai sauv\u00e9e et Poutine pourrai se pr\u00e9senter en vainqueur ayant lib\u00e9r\u00e9 les populations Russophiles du sud Donbass. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c9videment tout n\u2019est pas aussi simple et resterai le probl\u00e8me des avoirs Russes gel\u00e9s, des sanctions \u00e9conomiques, des anciennes populations Russophiles devenue largement Russophobes, du statut futur de l\u2019Ukraine, des r\u00e9paration des dommages de guerre, \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019avenir dira si je fantasme ou si je raisonne&nbsp;! &nbsp;Bien s\u00fbr beaucoup d\u2019autres sc\u00e9narii sont possibles, mais l&rsquo;abandon de Marioupol me parait in\u00e9vitable.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ce que je vais dire est purement sp\u00e9culatif car je n\u2019ai pas plus d\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ments que chacun d\u2019entre vous&nbsp;! Deux points retiennent mon attention L\u2019annonce faites par le porte-parole de l\u2019arm\u00e9e Russe que les objectifs militaires sont chang\u00e9s et se portent maintenant sur l\u2019est de l\u2019Ukraine. Cette annonce est faite par l\u2019arm\u00e9e et non par le [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":256,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[409],"class_list":["post-2549","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-socio","tag-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Poutine, quid de la n\u00e9gociation\u00a0? -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rouillier.com\/wordpress-socioeco\/poutine-quid-de-la-negociation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Poutine, quid de la n\u00e9gociation\u00a0? -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ce que je vais dire est purement sp\u00e9culatif car je n\u2019ai pas plus d\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ments que chacun d\u2019entre vous&nbsp;! 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