{"id":108,"date":"2014-12-02T19:25:16","date_gmt":"2014-12-02T18:25:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.rouillier.com\/wordpress-socioeco\/?p=108"},"modified":"2015-11-06T19:15:24","modified_gmt":"2015-11-06T18:15:24","slug":"malthus-le-retour","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.rouillier.com\/wordpress-socioeco\/economie-3\/malthus-le-retour\/","title":{"rendered":"Malthus, le retour\u00a0?"},"content":{"rendered":"

En 1798 Thomas Malthus publie \u00ab\u00a0Essai sur le principe de population\u00a0\u00bb dans lequel il exprime que, sans frein, la population croit exponentiellement (ou g\u00e9om\u00e9triquement) alors que la production de nourritures et de biens ne croit qu’arithm\u00e9tiquement. Il en d\u00e9duit le caract\u00e8re in\u00e9vitable d’une catastrophe d\u00e9mographique.\"thomas-malthus-1766-1834-il-a-mis-en-garde-contre-l-explosion-demographique_paysage619\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Les th\u00e9ories de Malthus vont \u00eatre d\u00e9menties par l’histoire. On a d’abord critiqu\u00e9 les algorithmes math\u00e9matiques de Malthus comme \u00e9tant sans fondement r\u00e9els. Puis on a constat\u00e9 que du fait des progr\u00e8s techniques la production a continu\u00e9 d’\u00e9voluer en rapport avec l’accroissement de la population. Enfin l’accroissement d\u00e9mographique c’est vu contr\u00f4l\u00e9 par la r\u00e9gression de la natalit\u00e9 principalement li\u00e9e \u00e0 l’enrichissement de certains pays.<\/p>\n

Les th\u00e9orie Malthusiennes sont pass\u00e9s \u00ab\u00a0\u00e0 la trappe\u00a0\u00bb et ses travaux oubli\u00e9s. Optimisme un peu surfait ou fuite en avant\u00a0?<\/p>\n

L’id\u00e9e de p\u00e9nurie de nourritures et de biens refait aujourd’hui surface au travers des id\u00e9es \u00e9cologiques. On prends conscience de nos jours que la disponibilit\u00e9 des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res et des terres agraires n’est pas sans limites et qu’elle entre in\u00e9vitablement en conflit avec la d\u00e9mographie.<\/p>\n

La r\u00e9duction de la population est en marche. Le taux de natalit\u00e9 est largement inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 2 dans beaucoup de pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s, elle a \u00e9t\u00e9 th\u00e9oris\u00e9e en Chine, essay\u00e9e aux Indes, mais malgr\u00e9 tout la population mondiale continue de cro\u00eetre.<\/p>\n

En ce qui concerne les ressources de nouveaux progr\u00e8s nous laissent encore une marge de manoeuvre, et ce n’est pas r\u00e9ellement par p\u00e9nurie mais plus par in\u00e9galit\u00e9 sociale que les gens meurent actuellement de faim. La prise de conscience de la possible rar\u00e9faction des ressources entra\u00eene des politiques d’\u00e9conomie et de recyclage qui commencent \u00e0 produire leurs effets.<\/p>\n

Mais ceci ne se fait pas sans nouvelles contraintes (tri s\u00e9lectif, \u00e9conomies diverses,changement de comportement et surtout comp\u00e9tition pour les ressources) qui ne font qu’accro\u00eetre le stress de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 qui n’en demande pas tant.<\/p>\n

L’humanit\u00e9 commence \u00e0 prendre la bonne direction, mais le probl\u00e8me reste crucial \u00e0 moyen terme. Qui de la croissance d\u00e9mographique ou de l’accroissement des ressources va l’emporter\u00a0? Esp\u00e9rons que ce sera le second\u00a0! En fait l’inertie du frein \u00e0 la d\u00e9mographie para\u00eet plus forte que l’acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de l’accroissement des ressources et la situation sera de toutes fa\u00e7on tendue. On ne peut rien pr\u00e9voir, sinon que ce sera les plus d\u00e9favoris\u00e9s qui payerons les pots cass\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

De toutes fa\u00e7on la pression d\u00e9mographique sur la plan\u00eate devient trop forte et in\u00e9vitablement des m\u00e9canismes de r\u00e9gulation devront se mettre en jeu. S’ils interviennent lentement, en douceur, tout pourrait bien se passer s’ils se produisent brutalement (faute d’anticipation )\u00a0 attention \u00e0 la casse.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

En 1798 Thomas Malthus publie \u00ab\u00a0Essai sur le principe de population\u00a0\u00bb dans lequel il exprime que, sans frein, la population croit exponentiellement (ou g\u00e9om\u00e9triquement) alors que la production de nourritures et de biens ne croit qu’arithm\u00e9tiquement. Il en d\u00e9duit le caract\u00e8re in\u00e9vitable d’une catastrophe d\u00e9mographique. Les th\u00e9ories de Malthus vont \u00eatre d\u00e9menties par l’histoire. On […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":256,"featured_media":96,"parent":842,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-108","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"yoast_head":"\nMalthus, le retour\u00a0? -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rouillier.com\/wordpress-socioeco\/economie-3\/malthus-le-retour\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Malthus, le retour\u00a0? -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"En 1798 Thomas Malthus publie \u00ab\u00a0Essai sur le principe de population\u00a0\u00bb dans lequel il exprime que, sans frein, la population croit exponentiellement (ou g\u00e9om\u00e9triquement) alors que la production de nourritures et de biens ne croit qu’arithm\u00e9tiquement. Il en d\u00e9duit le caract\u00e8re in\u00e9vitable d’une catastrophe d\u00e9mographique. Les th\u00e9ories de Malthus vont \u00eatre d\u00e9menties par l’histoire. 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